Baby Diapers in Africa: How the “Youthquake” Phenomenon Is Reshaping the Market
In recent years, Africa has been experiencing one of the world's highest birth rates and significant population growth.
While globally populations are aging and birth rates are declining—the global birth rate has fallen from 37 births per 1,000 people in 1963 to 18.5 in 2021—Africa stands out as an exception. The continent registers a birth rate about twice the global average and has the lowest median age in the world, approximately 19.7 years.
However, the demographic landscape varies significantly across different countries. For instance, in South Africa, women have an average of two children, whereas in Niger, the average is seven. Nations such as Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo are driving the growth, with high birth rates contributing to their burgeoning child populations.
Despite Africa's vast cultural diversity, with 54 countries and countless ethnic groups and languages that make generalizations difficult, a positive demographic trend is broadly observed. The United Nations predicts that by 2050, Africa's population will reach nearly 2.5 billion. Among African states, for example, Nigeria is the most populous country, with a birth rate of 36.9 per 1,000 people, and is expected to have a population of over 400 million by 2050.
The phenomenon of rising birth rates and the rapid expansion of the young population translates into a growing demand for baby diapers across the continent, making it a market full of challenges to be faced but, more importantly, interesting opportunities to be seized.
The Growth of the African Baby Disposable Hygiene Market
As the number of babies continues to increase each year, the consumer base for baby nappies is expanding significantly, making this market one of the fastest growing across the planet.
The growing infant and child population, coupled with the expanding middle class, is further propelling market progress.
According to Euromonitor projections, the growth of baby diapers and pants in volume terms is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +4.3% and +4%, respectively, by 2028. Diapers will remain the preferred format for many African families, with a projected incremental volume growth of +5.14 billion units by 2027 compared to just 0.05 billion for baby pants. This preference likely stems from their greater convenience and ease of use.
Looking ahead, the baby diaper market in Africa is set to grow in both volume and value terms over the forecast period, driven by rising consumer purchasing power in line with economic renaissance.
In terms of value, in fact, the market is experiencing an impressive growth with baby diapers expected to grow at a CAGR of +16%, while baby pants by +18% through 2028. This boost is due to several socio-economic factors, including improving economic conditions, increasing urbanization, and growing hygiene awareness.
Another important factor to consider in analyzing the evolution of the diaper market in Africa is the high inflation rates recorded in several African countries in recent years. In Nigeria, 2023 saw a sharp increase in unit prices due to rising fuel costs and currency depreciation, weakening consumer spending power. This led to average unit price hikes of over 30%, forcing many consumers to purchase diapers only for occasional use and to opt for smaller pack sizes or bulk-broken offerings.
Similarly, in Tunisia, high inflation dampened volume growth despite population increases, with many consumers turning to reusable cloth diapers to save money. Nonetheless, the market for disposable baby products still saw a retail value increase of 13% in 2023. The rise of private label brands offering more affordable options contributed to this growth.
In South Africa instead, inflationary pressures, along with supply chain disruptions and increased production costs, led consumers to favor private label brands, which gained volume share due to their affordability. Despite these pressures, the market grew, with retail value sales rising by 8% in 2023, a trend expected to continue thanks to the increasing presence of e-commerce and innovative products.
A Trend That Influences Diaper Purchasing Habits and Channels
Also playing a crucial role in the distribution of baby diapers in Africa is the presence of a wide range of retail channels. Traditional convenience stores, supermarkets, hypermarkets, and discount stores dominate the market, accounting for more than 90% of the total volume. These retail outlets are still the go-to channels for most African purchasers because of their strategic location in neighborhoods, wide variety of products, availability of small package sizes, and the ability to purchase single units instead of full packages.
However, the retail landscape is changing rapidly, and e-commerce is emerging as a key growth area. Digitalization is reshaping the habits of Africans, with younger generations driving this change. Mobile technology is deeply embedded in daily life, evidenced by the 670 million cell phones—one for every two people on the continent and this widespread digital access is also making online shopping more popular.
E-commerce sector, indeed, is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +21% by 2028. In 2023, online retail sales reached $49.02 billion, growing at an annual rate of nearly 14%, and by 2027, the user base of the African e-commerce market is expected to expand to 609.3 million, with a user penetration rate of 44.3%.
Although e-commerce currently accounts for only about 2% of retail purchases for disposable hygiene products, its rapid growth should be watched, as the trend could offer new opportunities to reach a wider buyer base.
A New Generation, a New Target
With more than 50% of the population under 25, younger generations constitute the ideal consumer base for new investments and markets. A number that continues to grow: by 2030, the continent is expected to add over 170 million new consumers, presenting vast untapped opportunities.
Fueled by new lifestyles, rapid urbanization, economic growth, and increased awareness of global issues, young Africans are leading the way, influencing markets, advocating for social and political reforms, and driving technological and entrepreneurial innovation. This "Youthquake" phenomenon- a significant social, economic, and cultural transformation driven by Africa's youthful population – is set to position Africa as a vital player in the global landscape not only from a market perspective.
To effectively target such potential purchasers, brands need to understand the consumer trends influencing their purchasing decisions:
- Digitalization: Young Africans are more connected than ever. This digital savviness has led to a surge in online shopping, where consumers enjoy the convenience of browsing and purchasing products from their mobile devices.
- Value for Money: African consumers, particularly the younger generations, are highly value-conscious. They seek products that provide a balance between affordability and quality, prioritizing the best value for their money.
- Proximity and Wide Distribution: Convenience stores remain immensely popular in Africa due to their accessibility and wide distribution. These stores are strategically located in neighborhoods, making them easy to reach for daily needs and catering to consumers who prefer buying in smaller quantities.
- Brand Responsibility: Young Africans are increasingly aware of global issues such as environmental sustainability and social justice. Brands that adopt eco-friendly practices, engage in ethical sourcing, and contribute to community welfare are more likely to resonate with these consumers.
- Consumer-Centric and Omnichannel Approach: To effectively engage with young African consumers, brands need to adopt a consumer-centric and omnichannel approach. This means being accessible across multiple platforms, both online and offline. Young consumers expect a seamless experience whether they are shopping in a physical store, browsing online, or engaging with the brand on social media.
By understanding and adapting to these trends, brands can better position themselves to capture the attention and loyalty of young African consumers, leveraging the unique dynamics of this vibrant and rapidly evolving market.
GDM's solutions for growing together in the diapers market in Africa
The baby diapers market in Africa is brimming with potential, thanks to its young and growing population, which ensures a steady demand for diapers. With more births translating to more consumers, the market is set for continuous expansion. Improved economic conditions and urbanization are driving market growth in both volume and value and additionally, the rise of e-commerce offers brands new ways to reach a broader consumer base. The "Youthquake" phenomenon underscores the importance of targeting new young, value-conscious shoppers who seek affordability, quality, and brand responsibility. These dynamics, combined with Africa's demographic and economic growth, make the baby diapers market a prime investment opportunity, promising substantial returns and success.
If you are considering investing in the African baby diapers market, GDM is your go-to partner: from market analysis and product design, to supply of technology and after-sales services, we can help you seize the countless opportunities this market offers.
Contact us today to find out how we can work together to drive your business to success.
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